Drilling Down in Obama's Oil Play
Friday, April 2, 2010 at 10:34AM While everyone's wondering what exactly a man who ran a presidential campaign partly on an anti-oil ticket, my colleague Michael Economides and I have drilled down to the "nonsense on stilts" it makes of harmonizing the Prez's energy and climate goals.
For the whole article go to Energy Tribune here or to Canada Free Press here.
And here's a taster:
First: the energy facts. Currently, 85 percent of the US energy mix is provided by oil, gas and coal. By some amazing coincidence, the US is using around 100 Quads (quadrillion Btu) of energy, and so these numbers reflect both percent and actual energy use. If we take the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) figures of 0.5 percent increase per year and extrapolate total energy use to 2050, this would translate to about 125 quads. (Incidentally this is a surprisingly small figure considering the recent past, which was as high as 2 percent annual increase and China’s forecast of over 3.2 percent per year. Is the EIA trying to please the Obama White House?)
Second: the Obama administration has made several statements intending to slash CO2 emissions by 83 percent of the 2005 figures by 2050. This would mean that the current 85 quads that come from fossil fuels must be reduced to less than 14.5 quads, which would imply that, by 2050, the contribution from fossil fuels to the US energy mix should be reduced to about 11.5 percent (some even mentioned less than 10 percent) of the total energy consumption. But that in turn would mean that wind and solar, the darlings of this administration, would provide essentially all the rest – a patent impossibility.
More drilling for more oil just exacerbates Obama’s insoluble conundrum.Of course the reality is that the announcement is designed to hoodwink would-be opponents, and there are many, of carbon cap and trade or carbon tax. If the Administration was sincere about energy and energy “independence” it would immediately rescind the EPA’s finding of CO2 as a pollutant, which by coincidence (?) comes into force today, April 1, 2010. Further, it would actively encourage drilling rather than starting environmental “studies” that would drag on for years with excruciating permits, followed by certain environmentalist challenges that would just about take this offshore oil non-production to 2050.
The interesting thing is that almost every key energy assessment from knowledgeable energy insiders, including the DOE’s own EIA, suggest that by 2050, fossil fuels will still provide around 85 percent of the US energy mix, no matter what US political rhetoric may ascribe on alternative energy sources.
The fact is the Obama Administration already has an impossible circle to square on its current energy pronouncements. Whatever political calculations may be in play, the President’s oil ‘card’ play may trump his carbon-reducing climate play – but it makes “nonsense on stilts” in harmonizing both.
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For a little over 1-year now I have been reviewing all of the various comments, blogs and reports regarding the renewable and clean energy discussion. Anyone that is truly interested in advancing the use of alternative energies needs to understand that it can actually happen if and only if, they start appealing to individual’s “common sense”.
When spoken about from a Political tone or even from a Social and Environmental voice, people tend not to want to listen. The fact is most people are disgusted with the political overtures thrown around the country. Once they get a sense that a politician is speaking of the subject, whether it be for the good or not, they tune out and the movement goes nowhere. The same rings true if spoken by an environmental activist type. The fact here is, most people do not want to be thought of as some “environmental greenie” type. Although, if the discussion were framed as an appeal to one’s “common sense” such as: 1) do you think we should STOP buying/importing oil from overseas…? Everyone spoken to would without a doubt answer emphatically YES! 2) Mention, are you aware that the U.S. uses 25% of the world’s oil but, can only produce 2% - so unless we do something else, we cannot stop importing the oil needed to survive. 3) Ask, are you aware that the U.S. Government, especially the military are currently using all sorts of renewable and clean energy to conduct their various businesses. 4) Express to the U.S. public that in China, only 1% of the population owns a car, yet the Chinese Government is aggressively pushing with big incentives its’ citizens to purchase automobiles, and that China’s population of course, is 3-times the size of ours – then ask, where do you think gasoline prices are going once their driving citizens get on-board? 5) Explain how by going renewable your electric bills will decrease. Of course however, if there is not a great demand for the renewable energy source, the prices are initially higher to the consumer but, if the demand were to arrive, prices would ultimately decrease, alas the way of “flat-screen televisions”.
The tone of the conversation must change if there is to be any headway made in the advancements of renewable energy. EVERYBODY would welcome the change if and only if, the texture of the discussion was different. Take a peek at a new site I discovered online, www.reepedia.com
It is my understanding that they are trying to change the texture of the discussion. Good for them, but better for the American people because, the current dialog hasn’t and isn’t getting us anywhere.
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